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World industrial production slowing

 My calculation of world industrial production (data through May 22) is plotted (extreme adjusted, to reduce the covid spike in 2020) as a percentage of its long-term moving trend, compared with a diffusion index of all its components.  The diffusion index, which measures the percentage of the time series in the sample space which are rising, tends to lead the actual industrial production index, especially at cyclical peaks.   A majority of the monitored series are still rising, but a smaller percentage than earlier this year.  Just because the diffusion index is falling does not mean that the world will enter a recession.  Previous decelerations have been associated only with temporary slow-downs.  However, its decline is consistent with the other indications that we will experience a global recession.

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