We've heard a lot from Michael Yon in these pages recently. That's because I think he's one of the few observers of the international scene who truly understands what's going on beneath the surface, where the writ of governments and authorities and figureheads runs out of steam. Yesterday he warned:
Bangladesh collapsing. I did a recon there and Sri Lanka about five years ago. Bangladesh very significant. I was checking routes to Thailand in case of famine in India/Bangladesh. Refugees can swarm across Burma to Thailand.
To readers in Thailand, be prepared to face swarms at the border. Might take months or a year but at this rate can happen suddenly.
Meanwhile, Iraq. Presidential Palace and US Embassy evacuated. Sadrists swimming in the Presidential Pool, a place I remember well. Iran chomping.
Energy and food implications are severe locally, regionally, and globally.
You know you are in [a] war when something new and serious happens every hour, 24/7. We are there. We have reached the conditions we warned about.
From here out, nobody can stop it. This will go until it burns out. Nobody is in control but we do control ourselves. Tribe-up.
Please stop and focus on your preparations. This is no time for vacation unless you are very prepared.
You may be asking, "Why is Yon warning us about this when it's all about Bangladesh or Pakistan? That won't affect us here!" Well, I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but it will. If hundreds of thousands of refugees flee those countries, they'll destabilize the nations to or through which they flee. Many of them will end up on our southern border, trying to cross into this country, because it's the safest place they can think of. (They're wrong about that, but they won't be in any mood to listen to arguments.) Furthermore, international agreements and treaties will come under pressure to deal with the diaspora; and supplies of food and other essentials will be disrupted as population patterns change. In our modern, interconnected world, any country is more and more interdependent on every other nation. That's a fact of life.
In his 1926 novel "The Sun Also Rises", recognized today as one of his greatest works, Ernest Hemingway put these words into the mouths of his characters:
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
The international scene feels very much like that to me at present. Over the past few years we've seen a slow but steady escalation in tensions, problems, difficulties . . . call it what you will. The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated that, making things much worse, very quickly - but initially, governments kept a lid on the mounting pressures. Now . . . now it seems the lid is about to blow off. Energy prices, shortages, social unrest and conflict, wars, famine - they're all coming to a head. Every day we read about, and sometimes encounter, new and more difficult issues. Few, if any, can be solved easily. Many can't be solved at all.
As far as many nations are concerned, and international relations between them, I think we've reached the "suddenly" part of "Gradually and then suddenly". Things are about to go out of control in much of the world. "About" can mean weeks or months, but I no longer think we're talking about years. Just look at how an unstable country can affect others.
- Pakistan has nuclear weapons - reportedly at least a hundred of them - plus delivery systems for them. What if the political unrest there combines with the pressures caused by current flooding to produce an upheaval in government? What if, taking advantage of that, the Pakistani Taliban move to seize control of those nukes? What if some jihadist leader gets his hands on one or two of them and launches them against whichever nation he regards as most evil? There can't be any good ending to that at all . . .
- China needs an external distraction to take its citizens' minds off their internal economic problems. What if it launches an invasion of Taiwan? That would drag every major Asian nation into taking sides, and probably pitch the USA into war.
- What if the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine hits a crisis point at which Russia believes it has nothing to lose, and launches a nuclear warhead against a Ukrainian target?
- What if, as winter sets in, people across Europe rise in literal revolt against unaffordable energy prices?
- What if a new wave of impoverished invaders from the Third World swarm across the borders in Europe and the USA, desperate to get away from the famine and poverty and destruction they're encountering everywhere else?
You know you are in [a] war when something new and serious happens every hour, 24/7. We are there. We have reached the conditions we warned about.
I agree. So, from a different perspective, does Tucker Carlson, who warns: "Things are falling apart very quickly". If you'd like to read his remarks rather than watch this video clip, a transcript may be found here.
Again, I agree.
Peter
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