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Small 6 economies slowing with Big 8

The GDP-weighted average PMI for the "Small 6"  economies (Australia, Canada, Israel, Sweden, Switzerland, South Africa) continues to track the GDP-weighted average PMI for the "Big 8" economies (US, UK, Europe, Japan, China, Russia, Brazil, India).  As has been amply demonstrated in the past, when the Big 8 slow, the Small 6 follow.  

A recession in the Big 8 is very likely:

  • US: because of high inflation and tightening monetary policies
  • The UK: ditto, plus the Brexit disaster
  • Europe: inflation, commodity prices, ECB raising rates, severe gas shortage
  • Japan: inflation and commodity prices
  • China: Covid lockdowns, property crash, plunge in confidence
  • Russia: war
  • Brazil: rate tightening
  • India: might avoid recession, except for contagion from elsewhere

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