Deep recession -- if my US longer-leading index is right
This is my longer-leading US index, which leads the cycle by 24 months. It suggests a deep 2024 recession, but the lag between the longer-leading index and the overall cycle might be shorter this time because of war and the commodity price explosion. The lags between this leading index and the economy are quite variable, running from 18 to 30 months. I expect the US recession to start in the next couple of months, but, as ever, it's entirely possible I am wrong.
At any rate, the longer-leading index is pointing towards the deepest recession in 35 years. We shall see how accurate it is.